If you live in the Midwest, either you are getting hit with this storm right now or you will be getting hit with it soon. This storm has the potential to be the first big snow for the year in many areas. The forecast models have been all over the board with predicting this event. At least, that was the case up until earlier today when the 0Z and 12Z runs of the GFS and NAM, along with some other models are now much more agreeable with this storm’s track. When the models line up, that’s a pretty good sign of an accurate path.
The image below shows the precipitation forecast for Friday between 12 and 18Z (7am – 1pm EST). Right now, this system is starting to form in Texas. The storm will be traveling NNE over the next 36 hours to around Ohio in the time period of the image below. The precipitation “arrow” is pretty much pointing in the direction this thing is moving. The lightest blue is between 0.75 and 1 inch of liquid equivalent precipitation… However, if you follow the deep blue line marked 0 degrees C, all of this area will be getting either a rain/snow mix or all snow. 1 inch of liquid precipitation can equate to anywhere between 6-10 inches of snow depending on the temperature. Since this image just shows the precipitation for a 6 hour time period (and not the entire storm’s precipitation), there is a real potential of a bunch of snow being dumped along it’s path. Some models have forecasted up to 17 inches here in central Michigan, but I think that’s really overshooting it. I’m guessing it will drop around 6-8 inches of heavy snow for our area, and definitely more in some other areas.
Anyway, here’s hoping we’ll get enough snow to go sledding this weekend. 🙂